College football bowl projections: Predicted scores for every bowl game

June 06, 2024

College football bowl season has rapidly changed in recent years with the rise of transfers and opt-outs. That could become even more exaggerated with the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams next year. For now, it means projecting these games is a mess.

My college football model has projected scores and point totals for every bowl game, including the two College Football Playoff semifinals. The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context. However, there must be a major disclaimer with the numbers during bowl season.

I did some of my best guesswork to project who will play or not and the value of each player. Basically, the process is that I have projected values for each position, and I adjust based on who isn’t going to play. On top of that, there are games where I have to guess whether they play or not. We still haven’t heard from Marvin Harrison Jr., for example, on whether or not he will play in the Cotton Bowl, so for now, he is at 50 percent value. Then you have games with major coaching staff changes, so you have no idea how much (or how differently) they’re prepping.

Essentially, I have to regress everyone closer together while increasing variance.

All that’s to say bet with these numbers at your own peril. These are probably more for entertainment purposes than normal.

Full bowl game model projections

XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern 23.8, Ohio 21.3

New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State 28, Louisiana 27

Cure Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. App State 25.5, Miami (Ohio) 20.5

New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State 28.5, Fresno State 25.5

LA Bowl: UCLA 25.8, Boise State 23.3

Independence Bowl: Texas Tech 30.3, Cal 27.3

Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion 27.5, Western Kentucky 24.5

Frisco Bowl: UTSA 31, Marshall 22

Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse 31.5, USF 27.5

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF 36.3, Georgia Tech 29.8

Birmingham Bowl: Troy 25.3, Duke 16.8

Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State 26.5, Northern Illinois 26.5

Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison 22.8, Air Force 21.3

Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State 30, Georgia State 27

68 Ventures Bowl: South Alabama 30.3, Eastern Michigan 12.8

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah 24.3, Northwestern 15.3

Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State 28, Coastal Carolina 21

Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota 20, Bowling Green 17

First Responder Bowl: Texas State 32, Rice 28

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas 38.3, UNLV 25.8

Military Bowl: Virginia Tech 26.3, Tulane 20.3

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia 32, North Carolina 26

Holiday Bowl: Louisville 32.8, USC 26.3

Texas Bowl: Texas A&M 29.5, Oklahoma State 25

Fenway Bowl: SMU 28.3, Boston College 20.8

Pinstripe Bowl: Miami 19.5, Rutgers 19.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl: Kansas State 25.8, NC State 21.8

Alamo Bowl: Arizona 30.8, Oklahoma 29.3

Gator Bowl: Clemson 24.5, Kentucky 22.5

Sun Bowl: Notre Dame 24.5, Oregon State 17

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State 34.3, Memphis 22.8

Cotton Bowl: Missouri 25, Ohio State 22.5

Peach Bowl: Penn State 28.3, Ole Miss 25.3

Music City Bowl: Auburn 28, Maryland 25

Orange Bowl: Georgia 28.5, Florida State 15.5

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming 23.3, Toledo 19.8

ReliaQuest Bowl: LSU 37, Wisconsin 23

Citrus Bowl: Tennessee 25, Iowa 14.5

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon 42, Liberty 25

Rose Bowl (CFP Semifinal): No. 1 Michigan 24.8, No. 4 Alabama 22.8

Sugar Bowl (CFP Semifinal): Texas 31.8, Washington 28.3

(Photo of Luther Burden: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)

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